Iran Conflict: Market Impact and Implications

4-Mar-2026-iran-conflict-market-impact-and-implications.pdf

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On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel conducted airstrikes against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, along with several senior political and military officials. Iran subsequently launched missile strikes targeting Israel and US military bases in the Gulf Arab states.

Indications suggest that the hostilities could continue for several weeks. President Donald Trump has signalled a willingness to end the hostilities quickly should Iran’s leadership surrender, which could provide a potential off-ramp to the conflict.

Initial market impact

Global equity markets opened 1.5% to 2% lower on 2 March 2026, a more muted reaction than is typical during major geopolitical events. Sector moves were broadly in line with expectations for a geopolitical shock:

• Energy and defence stocks rallied.

• Travel-related sectors declined due to airspace closures.

• The Rand weakened 0.7% to R16.06/$.

• The JSE All Share Index was broadly flat, with gains in gold, platinum, and Sasol offsetting declines in Richemont, Naspers, and the banking sector.

• Global bonds rallied, with the US 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.99%.

• Gold rose 2.1% to $5,389/oz.

Oil prices climbed approximately 8% to $79 per barrel, reflecting concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply typically passes.

Macro implications

The rise in oil prices is the most immediate macroeconomic concern. Should the conflict continue for several months, higher oil prices could drive inflation higher, similar to the pattern seen in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The subsequent second-round effects (where higher fuel costs feed into broader prices) led to sharply higher interest rates, which triggered a severe market sell-off. Europe also experienced weak economic conditions as energy prices rose significantly. Japan, another country heavily reliant on energy imports, would likely face similar pressures, with higher oil prices feeding into higher inflation and ultimately higher interest rates.

Key risks

1. Regional and global escalation

• We saw Hezbollah fire rockets at Israel in retaliation, while Israel has started striking Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

• Russia is unlikely to intervene, as it remains engaged in the war in Ukraine.

• China rarely intervenes in regional conflicts and has called for an immediate cease-fire, without indicating any intent to support Iran militarily.

2. Damage to oil infrastructure, which would impact long-term oil supply and lead to higher oil prices and structurally higher inflation.

3. If the conflict continues for an extended period, oil prices could remain elevated, keeping inflation higher for longer. This would likely delay central bank rate cuts and weigh on both equity and bond markets.

Portfolio positioning

It is too early to determine how long the conflict will last and how persistent the spike in oil prices will be. Traditional “quality” defensive exposures are proving less reliable today, particularly as many are dominated by software and technology companies facing disruption risks from AI.

Value funds have increased exposure to defence businesses, which may help offset losses in other parts of the portfolio. Our global model portfolios are well diversified, with relatively lower exposure to equity and bonds where full equity mandates are not being run. Geopolitical shocks often cause temporary market dislocations, which may create opportunities to increase equity exposure where appropriate.

We continue to monitor developments closely, assessing risks, valuations and liquidity conditions to ensure the portfolios remain appropriately positioned.